The Dude Projects Jahvid Best

August 11, 2008 by The Dude
Filed under: Draft, Player News, Player Ranking

The Dude says: Draft Jahvid Best in Round 1 and you won’t be sorry.

Super-frosh Jahvid Best only carried the ball 29 times last season, however he managed to average 7.6 yrds/carry (221 yards, 2 touchdowns). Projecting Best based on his production last season is quite difficult. Looking at his predecessors makes this an easier task.

Joe Igber, Adimchinobe Echemandu, J.J. Arrington, Marshawn Lynch, and Justin Forsett. These five backs constitute the last six leader rushers for the Cal Bears. Using the standard CFB scoring system, we’ll breakdown the seasons for these rushers, show the average season for a Cal back over the last six years, and finally decide where Best fits in.

Joe Igber
1,130 yards rushing, 7 touchdowns; 309 yards receiving, 3 touchdowns = 212.4 pts

Adimchinobe Echemandu
1,195 yards rushing, 13 touchdowns; 185 yards receiving, 0 touchdowns = 212.3 pts

J.J. Arrington
2,018 yards rushing, 15 touchdowns; 121 yards receiving, 0 touchdowns = 295.0 pts

Marshawn Lynch (1)
1,246 yards rushing, 10 touchdowns; 125 yards receiving, 0 touchdowns = 193.4 pts

Marshawn Lynch (2)
1,356 yards rushing, 11 touchdowns; 328 yards receiving, 4 touchdowns = 263.8 pts

Justin Forsett
1,546 yards rushing, 15 touchdowns; 202 yards receiving, 0 touchdowns = 259.9 pts

Average Cal Leading Rusher (six seasons)
1,415 yards rushing, 12 touchdowns; 212 yards receiving, 1 touchdowns = 239.3 pts

That type of season puts Jahvid Best in the top 5-6 backs in the draft. Usually when doing this type of projection, The Dude would put weights on the odds that Best would achieve each of these scenarios. However when you compare the low and high seasons, Best looks to hit that middle ground. Grab Jahvid Best. He’s a safe Cal back giving you production even in the worst projection coupled with an extremely high ceiling.