The Dude Projects Jonathan Dwyer

August 19, 2008 by The Dude
Filed under: Draft, Player News, Player Ranking

Jonathan Dwyer

The biggest question leading up to this year’s draft has to be Jonathan Dwyer. Last year the Yellow Jacket freshman ran for 436 yards, filling in for the injured Tashard Choice. He displayed a real nose for the end zone, scoring 9 touchdowns (about 1 every 9 times he carried the ball). Choice has moved on. New Coach Paul Johnson has moved in. There is no mystery behind Johnson’s love of running the football using the triple option. The question is: What does this mean for Dwyer?

This question has haunted The Dude in his sleep. Over the last 3 years, the Navy offense averaged 4,207 yards on the ground with 45 touchdowns. Dwyer’s going to dominate, right? In these types of situations, The Dude likes to evaluate possible scenarios with the likelihood that each will happen. This will lead us to a final projection.

Before we begin, we’ll have to decide how many yards Georgia Tech is going to gain on the ground this season. As stated above, the Navy triple option averaged 4,207/45 over the last 3 seasons. To put this into perspective, West Virginia ran for 3,864/49 last year. Our good man Phil Steele has GT projected to run for 220 yards/game. This would be about 2,640 yards with 30 touchdowns. The Dude thinks this is a bit conservative and is increasing these team projections by 10% (2,904 yards / 33 touchdowns). With these team projections in mind, let’s move to Dwyer.

Scenario 1: Recent Navy-like Trending
On average, over the last three seasons, the Navy leading rusher has accounted for 20.8% of Navy’s rushing yards and 24.4% of the rushing touchdowns.

2008 Dwyer (Scenario 1) - 604 yards 8 touchdowns

Odds - 10%

Scenario 2: 2003/2004 Navy-like Trending
During Johnson’s early years at Navy, the triple option was not nearly as polished. The ball wasn’t distributed nearly as much as recent years. This would mimic the situation GT encounters this season. In 2003 and 2004, the Navy leading rusher accounted for 31.3% of Navy’s rushing yards and 40.4% of the rushing touchdowns.

2008 Dwyer (Scenario 2) - 909 yards 13 touchdowns

Odds - 30%

Scenario 3: Combined Full-Time Navy back
Last year at Navy, the FB duties were split between the leading and 3rd leading rushers. It’s not too far-fetched to assume Dwyer could take over these stats in a full-time role.

2008 Dwyer (Scenario 3) - 1,545 yards 15 touchdowns

Odds - 20%

Scenario 4: Tashard Choice
The triple option in Year 1 at GT could be quite ugly. Johnson will need a couple seasons to get it perfected. Some feel the offense won’t even be fully implemented this season, favoring a run-heavy spread. If this is the case, Dwyer could easily mirror Tashard Choice’s 2007 season.

2008 Dwyer (Scenario 4) - 1,379 yards 10 touchdowns

Odds - 40%

The Dude has now paved the way with Jonathan Dwyer scenarios. Using all these projections and associated probabilities, we come to the final projection…

Jonathan Dwyer - The Dude’s Projection
1,194 yards 12 touchdowns

Safely, this type of projection puts Dwyer as a top-10 running back. Even in worst-case projections, Dwyer is going to be a touchdown machine and will help your team. His potential ceiling could vault him as one of the top backs in college football. If you can get him late Round 1 or early Round 2, you’re making a safe pick. Anything earlier than that is a risk.