The biggest question leading up to this year’s draft has to be Jonathan Dwyer. Last year the Yellow Jacket freshman ran for 436 yards, filling in for the injured Tashard Choice. He displayed a real nose for the end zone, scoring 9 touchdowns (about 1 every 9 times he carried the ball).  Choice has moved on. New Coach Paul Johnson has moved in. There is no mystery behind Johnson’s love of running the football using the triple option. The question is: What does this mean for Dwyer?

This question has haunted The Dude in his sleep. Over the last 3 years, the Navy offense averaged 4,207 yards on the ground with 45 touchdowns.  Dwyer’s going to dominate, right? In these types of situations, The Dude likes to evaluate possible scenarios with the likelihood that each will happen. This will lead us to a final projection.

Before we begin, we’ll have to decide how many yards Georgia Tech is going to gain on the ground this season. As stated above, the Navy triple option averaged 4,207/45 over the last 3 seasons. To put this into perspective, West Virginia ran for 3,864/49 last year.  Our good man Phil Steele has GT projected to run for 220 yards/game.  This would be about 2,640 yards with 30 touchdowns.  The Dude thinks this is a bit conservative and is increasing these team projections by 10% (2,904 yards / 33 touchdowns).  With these team projections in mind, let’s move to Dwyer.

Scenario 1: Recent Navy-like Trending
On average, over the last three seasons, the Navy leading rusher has accounted for 20.8% of Navy’s rushing yards and 24.4% of the rushing touchdowns.

2008 Dwyer (Scenario 1) - 604 yards 8 touchdowns

Odds - 10%

Scenario 2: 2003/2004 Navy-like Trending
During Johnson’s early years at Navy, the triple option was not nearly as polished.  The ball wasn’t distributed nearly as much as recent years. This would mimic the situation GT encounters this season. In 2003 and 2004, the Navy leading rusher accounted for 31.3% of Navy’s rushing yards and 40.4% of the rushing touchdowns.

2008 Dwyer (Scenario 2) - 909 yards 13 touchdowns

Odds - 30%

Scenario 3: Combined Full-Time Navy back
Last year at Navy, the FB duties were split between the leading and 3rd leading rushers. It’s not too far-fetched to assume Dwyer could take over these stats in a full-time role.

2008 Dwyer (Scenario 3) - 1,545 yards 15 touchdowns

Odds - 20%

Scenario 4: Tashard Choice
The triple option in Year 1 at GT could be quite ugly. Johnson will need a couple seasons to get it perfected. Some feel the offense won’t even be fully implemented this season, favoring a run-heavy spread. If this is the case, Dwyer could easily mirror Tashard Choice’s 2007 season.

2008 Dwyer (Scenario 4) - 1,379 yards 10 touchdowns

Odds - 40%

The Dude has now paved the way with Jonathan Dwyer scenarios.  Using all these projections and associated probabilities, we come to the final projection…

Jonathan Dwyer - The Dude’s Projection
1,194 yards 12 touchdowns

Safely, this type of projection puts Dwyer as a top-10 running back.  Even in worst-case projections, Dwyer is going to be a touchdown machine and will help your team. His potential ceiling could vault him as one of  the top backs in college football. If you can get him late Round 1 or early Round 2, you’re making a safe pick. Anything earlier than that is a risk.

Super-frosh Jahvid Best only carried the ball 29 times last season, however he managed to average 7.6 yrds/carry (221 yards, 2 touchdowns). Projecting Best based on his production last season is quite difficult. Looking at his predecessors makes this an easier task.

Joe Igber, Adimchinobe Echemandu, J.J. Arrington, Marshawn Lynch, and Justin Forsett.  These five backs constitute the last six leader rushers for the Cal Bears.  Using the standard CFB scoring system, we’ll breakdown the seasons for these rushers, show the average season for a Cal back over the last six years, and finally decide where Best fits in.

Joe Igber
1,130 yards rushing, 7 touchdowns; 309 yards receiving, 3 touchdowns = 212.4 pts

Adimchinobe Echemandu
1,195 yards rushing, 13 touchdowns; 185 yards receiving, 0 touchdowns = 212.3 pts

J.J. Arrington
2,018 yards rushing, 15 touchdowns; 121 yards receiving, 0 touchdowns = 295.0 pts

Marshawn Lynch (1)
1,246 yards rushing, 10 touchdowns; 125 yards receiving, 0 touchdowns = 193.4 pts

Marshawn Lynch (2)
1,356 yards rushing, 11 touchdowns; 328 yards receiving, 4 touchdowns = 263.8 pts

Justin Forsett
1,546 yards rushing, 15 touchdowns; 202 yards receiving, 0 touchdowns = 259.9 pts

Average Cal Leading Rusher (six seasons)
1,415 yards rushing, 12 touchdowns; 212 yards receiving, 1 touchdowns = 239.3 pts

That type of season puts Jahvid Best in the top 5-6 backs in the draft. Usually when doing this type of projection, The Dude would put weights on the odds that Best would achieve each of these scenarios. However when you compare the low and high seasons, Best looks to hit that middle ground. Grab Jahvid Best. He’s a safe Cal back giving you production even in the worst projection coupled with an extremely high ceiling.

The Dude remembers back to 2005 when Tyrell Sutton owned college football. Drafting a back with almost 1,500 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns coupled with almost 400 yards receiving and another 2 touchdowns was a no-brainer in Round 1. However, these are different times. While his talent is unquestioned, Sutton has fought injuries ever since his freshman year. Where do you draft a Tyrell Sutton?

We’ll start with his strengths. Talent-wise, he is one of the best 5 all-purpose backs in the nation. Sutton won’t leave the field on 3rd down and has the hands to equate to around 500 yards receiving. His schedule this season is fairly light, highlighted with opening games against Syracuse, Duke, South Illinois, and Ohio. The Dude is using the 5 healthy games Sutton played for the Wildcats as the starting point in this projection.

2007 Fully Healthy Games
Games: 5
Rushing: 508 yards 4 touchdowns
Receiving: 223 yards

2008 Ceiling Projection (based on 2007 Healthy per Game Avg)
Games: 12
Rushing: 1,219 yards 10 touchdowns
Receiving: 535 yards 2 touchdowns* *(based on 2005 and 2006 totals)

PPG: 22.0 (see scoring article)

22.0 PPG!?!  That would rate him as one of the best backs this season. Remember, I said ceiling.

Sutton can’t stay healthy. He’ll miss 6 quarters of football due to injury during the 2008 season.  This leads us to…

The Dude’s final 2008 projection for Tyrell Sutton
Games: 10.5
Rushing: 1,067 yards 9 touchdowns
Receiving: 469 yards 2 touchdowns

This puts Sutton right around 10th best overall RB and most likely a 2nd Round pick in your draft.

Javhid Best

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWLIBwocp5A

Marlon Lucky

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vp_h-zo9VP8

Chris Wells

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1pEQIjEdRc&feature=related

DeMarco Murray

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zIVl4CaSEo

Knowshon Moreno

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ez2raEPLwu4

LeSean McCoy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKJW-rF7rCg

Percy Harvin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gt68j3UjyZI

Jeremy Maclin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWaqPMpqIWQ

• Account for the higher amount of passing yardage and touchdowns accumulated in the College arena. Quarterbacks put up bigger numbers than quarterbacks in NFL leagues, and do it in a 12 game schedule.
• Use team kickers. Sure it’s more interesting to keep track of all aspects of your team, but having everyone name a specific kicker will just cause headaches.
• Have very specific rules surrounding team defense. There is usually debate on how defense should be counted. In theory, it should wind up with the same weight value as another player in the lineup. The method we’ve had the best luck with is to use a sliding scale to take points away from your team based on the number of points scored against the defense in your starting lineup.
• Decide if you want to include special teams and defensive scoring. Will special teams scores count? Will fumbles returned as touchdowns count? There are a lot of scenarios surrounding this. We recommend counting defensive touchdowns, kickoff returns, and punt returns as rushing touchdowns. Fake field goals and other gadget plays should be credited to the individual players.
• Clearly define the start and end of your weeks. With games sliding into Tuesday, Wednesday, and Sunday, make sure all involved know when the week begins and ends.

Based upon all of this, here is the scoring system we’ve adopted.

Offense - These values are for players across the board. Running backs can catch or throw touchdowns, etc..
Passing yards - .05 points per yard
Rushing yards - .10 points per yard
Receiving yards - .15 points per yard
Passing touchdowns - 3 points per passing touchdown
Rushing touchdowns - 5 points per rushing touchdown
Receiving touchdowns - 6 points per receiving touchdown
Special Teams touchdowns - 5 points per rushing touchdown
Field goals - 3 points, regardless of distance
Extra points - 1 point
Interceptions thrown - Minus 1 point per interception

Defense
0-1 points scored against - 8 points
2-6 points scored against - 4 points
7-10 points scored against - 0 points
11-13 points scored against - Minus 4 points from final score
14-21 points scored against - Minus 8 points from final score
22-28 points scored against - Minus 12 points from final score
29-34 points scored against - Minus 16 points from final score
Over 35 points scored against - Minus 20 points from final score
Defensive TD - 5 points per touchdown

Obviously this can be tweaked to fit your league’s needs, but this should provide a good start.

1 ) How many people will be in your league:

10-12 is desirable. The key in these leagues are quality over quantity. If you can get 12 solid owners…great, otherwise stick with 10.

2 ) What conferences will you use:

This will be debated, however you will find that if you stick with BCS-only conferences 1) your life will be much easier to manage and 2) you will have just the right amount of available talent for your 10-12 teams. There are so many quality fantasy starters that if you were to go with all conferences, you’d need about 30 owners to have a solid league.

3 ) How many players on a roster:

This number can be adjusted, however, we recommend using 15 players on your roster. This gives you plenty of talent on your roster and the waiver wire all while not stifling any trades in your league. If you want more trading in your league, increase your rosters…if you want less, decreasing your roster will put more roster-quality players on the waiver wire.

4 ) How many players should be in your starting lineup:

One of the beauties of the college game is seeing a team that runs 5 wide on offense matching up against a wishbone running team. Fantasy college football can mimic just that. We suggest starting 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 Flex (RB or WR), 1 DEF and 1 K. The 2 Flex positions give you the option of running a Georgia Tech-like wishbone or a Texas Tech-like run and shoot.

5 ) How do free agent pickups work:

Once a week, owners will submit FA requests to you (the commish). Based on a priority scale, the owners will be awarded their player. We suggest having a 2 round limit for FA pickups each week.

6 ) How should scoring be implemented:

This topic alone is the subject of one of our articles. Check it out.

7 ) Who is the champion:

What side of the college football fence do you sit on? Are you a fan of the BCS or a fan of playoffs? With fantasy college football, you can go about it both ways. A BCS scoring system could pit the top rated teams in a championship game at season’s end. You could divide your league into conferences and hold conference championships with the winners squaring off in the title game. You have many options. If you’d like more info on how a BCS score could be implemented, Ask The Dude.

8 ) Is there a service to help me with everything:

There are not a lot of options in this arena. The market leader is U-Sports. They will allow you to do pretty much anything you can imagine. A new contender in the field is Pro Pro Sports. They do offer a less expensive service, but their feature set isn’t as mature as U-Sports at this stage.

Have fun and good luck!

Not so fast.

Under many fantasy formats, your playoff week will either start or run through week 12. How would you like getting to your first round playoff game, and having to play it without some of the best players in the league? That’s exactly what could happen.

The Big East had the bright idea of scheduling 3 byes this season. As if 3 weren’t enough to knock down fantasy value of the players coming out of the conference, how about losing them in week 12? That’s right. LeSean McCoy, Noel Devine, Patrick White…. None of them will be playing.

The Big East isn’t alone.

While no other major has 3 byes, several other top players will also be facing the same bye challenge late in the season. Later, DeMarco Murray and Jeremy Maclin.

Think these players might be needed in your playoffs?

It doesn’t end there. Jonathan Dwyer, Javon Ringer, Michael Crabtree. Yes, some pretty big names, all bye in week 12.

Usually, teams will end up with a bye or their season will end in Week 13 or 14, and owners have the discretion of which week to use a player for their Championship game. This is much different. This is the first round in many formats, without the luxury of flipping weeks.

Am I saying to avoid these players? Obviously not, these guys are what will get you to the playoffs in the first place. Just know your leagues playoff schedule, and if this is indeed the case for your league, draft accordingly.

While it’s a safe bet to grab a Harrell, you may think twice about teaming him up with a WR or your first RB that also byes that week. Print out all the byes, bring them to your draft, and pay attention.

There are several reasons why Tim Tebow is viewed as the #1 pick again. He will be there for you for that stretch run, just as he’s there for people in need of circumcisions.

]]> http://collegefantasybowl.com/2008/08/harrell-tebow-mccoy-buyer-beware-i%e2%80%99m-serious/feed/ http://collegefantasybowl.com/2008/08/first-timer-draft-guide/ http://collegefantasybowl.com/2008/08/first-timer-draft-guide/#comments Thu, 07 Aug 2008 15:41:57 +0000 kalbanese http://collegefantasybowl.com/?p=12 So you finally took the plunge into fantasy college football, but you have no idea where to get started. Read this, and you should experience an enjoyable season, and you may even learn something about teams you don’t normally root for.

• Game Plan

Do not go into your draft thinking you want to draft players off your favorite college team. You may not win a game. If you are a fan of Florida, then obviously taking Tim Tebow is a great pick. Following him up with Florida’s WR’s and RB’s is not smart.

I was recently in a draft where a guy took 7 players from Florida. I’m not kidding. This is fantasy suicide. If you are in the league just to follow your own favorite team, I suggest you re think that idea and stick to watching the games on TV. Fantasy football is a game to win, and by drafting meaningless players, you are only hurting the quality of the league you have joined, while irritating other owners who take the game more seriously.

Know your league rules before you begin your study. If your league gives points for receptions, you will look at WR’s completely differently than a league that doesn’t. A good example of this is Mike Jones. While Jones has value in a yards and TD league, he may not be as valuable in leagues that award points per reception.

Same holds true for QB’s. Make sure your league awards rushing yards to all players, and not just for RB’s. If they do not, the value of guys like Tebow and Pat White are reduced dramatically.

• Research

The first thing you should do is start preparing no less than two weeks prior to your draft to give you ample time to read. You should read a lot before even attempting to make a cheat sheet for your draft, get yourself familiar with players around the country.

A great place to start is Phil Steele. While this is not a fantasy magazine, Steele provides excellent information on how a team offense will be run, who his conferences All Americans are, and gives excellent pre season depth charts.

Other magazines work just as well, but my personal preference has always been Steele.

Read websites. There are now a handful of college fantasy sites that provide excellent opinions, and even have chat boards where experienced players offer their opinions. Soak it up like a sponge; you want this information to form your own opinion.

When a website tells you that a major sleeper is RB Ryan McCants, you must do your research on him. Form your own opinion. These websites all make mistakes, they are not perfect. You may find by doing research that a major sleeper didn’t in fact win the job. Don’t be stuck with a dud third round pick.

Know the conferences. Look at what conferences provide the most offense. These are the players you want. If you know from your research that the Pac 10 loves to fling it around, then that should tell you it’s a great place to look for WR’s. All of this type of information is in magazines such as Steele.

Read the news. A great website is www.topix.com. Search for a player name, and it will link you to articles around the country from major newspapers where he is mentioned. It’s a wonderful tool and a great way to track injuries as well.

• Form a Cheat Sheet

Use your own cheat sheet based on the research you have done. A very easy way to do this is to print out cheat sheets from other websites, and circle the names of players that you really would love to have. Adjust, and type out your own list.

Regardless of where other sites list this player, he should be higher up on your own personal list if you feel strongly about him. Draft day is not a day to hesitate; it’s a day to take gambles on guys you think will help you win. That is the goal after all, to win.

For example, if Darrell Scott from Colorado is a guy you desperately want, he should be ranked fairly high on your list. Not so high to where you will miss out on known studs such as Knowshon Moreno, but high enough that he catches your attention during the draft.

Or maybe you are not high on Chris Wells; maybe you think Terrell Pryor will steal some of his goal line carries. Wells should move down on your personal list.

Don’t be that guy that wanted a player and missed out because he was too low on your list. This is college fantasy football. The only list that matters is yours.

If you just print out a list and use it, I can guarantee you other guys are using the same exact list. Draft ahead of the curve, and take risks.

Do not be the first team to grab a Defense. My rule of thumb is, let some other owner start that run unless you are completely sold that the team you want is a difference maker. While the rest of your league is snatching up in panic mode, you may be able to sneak in another RB or WR that can make a huge difference.

• Be Active in Free Agency

Once your league starts, the worst thing you can do is think you have a great team, no need to make adjustments.

Be very active in free agent pick ups. This is where leagues are won and lost. Every year, fantastic players emerge that were after thoughts on draft day. Don’t miss out on Enrique Davis if Cordera Eason goes down with a torn ACL. Be active, and do it often.

• Follow the News

Keep up on injuries and hot free agents by simply visiting websites. You obviously found this website, so bookmark it. Reference it. Use it to your advantage.

Check other sites as well. You may find that one site doesn’t agree with another site. Do the research.

And there you have it.

You may not win the title in your first year, but if you approach it the right way you will learn a lot from other experienced owners in your league, and then by next year you should be a force to be reckoned with.

Have fun.

1. Eastern Washington - Next to last in FBS total passing yards given up last season with 3206.
2. SMU - Third from last in FBS last season allowing an astonishing 301.4 yards per game. Harrell threw for 414 and 4 tds in this game last year and running for another score.
3. Massachusetts - Respectable FBS passing defense, but that doesn’t usually matter against Tech. They’ve outscored their last 4 FBS schools by an average of 61 ppg.
4. Oklahoma St - Porous pass defense last season gave up 292.8 ypg. Tech hanging 646 yds on them didn’t help.

Take that info and combine it with being Harrell’s 3rd year as a starter, Florida’s commitment to finding a running game aside from Tebow, and Crabtree’s 2nd half dip in numbers without much change in Texas Tech’s passing production. Draft and enjoy.